TAMU-CC Researchers Expect COVID-19 Cases to Continue Dramatic Increase

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – Models developed by researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi predict cases of COVID-19 may be doubling in Nueces County every four days, and 3,500 new cases may be recorded in the next 10 days.

The steep increase in cases puts Nueces County in third place among Texas metropolitan areas in the average number of cases per day per capita, behind only Austin and Lubbock. The number of cases in Nueces County is increasing more rapidly than in any other city in Texas, researchers said.

“We’re accelerating faster than all the other metro areas in the state,” said Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “Houston and Austin are also accelerating pretty quickly, but not nearly as quickly as us.”

In a regular weekly news conference today, June 26, Bird noted that Nueces County has been under the same types of regulations as other areas of Texas but has not adhered as well to the precautions, resulting in the rapid spread.

He said even if the transmission rate drops to the level of several weeks ago, when one infected person only spread the virus to one other person, the problem will not be solved. Because so many are infected now, the same transmission rate would result in hundreds of new cases as the hundreds of infected people infected just one other person each. Under that scenario, the virus would be at current critical levels for a long time.

Even with a drop in the transmission rate to pre-surge levels, “we’re going to see the same number of cases day after day after day,” he said. “It will not result in a decline in the number of cases. It will keep us steady. We need to go back to full, flatten-the-curve mode like we were in March. The reason we did so much then was because we needed to flatten that curve because this is what was coming. If you get too high, it becomes more and more difficult to get back down.”

Bird and other members of a special task force are preparing in-depth reports and public presentations each week for the City of Corpus Christi and Nueces County that models the course of the virus across the Coastal Bend.

Bird said because people in the Coastal Bend did so well with precautions early in the pandemic, the first wave passed with much less impact to people here than in other parts of the state.

“We shut down in exactly the right time, we flattened the first wave because of how we responded,” Bird said. “The localized outbreaks of last month were identified and quickly contained but now the epidemic is widespread in the Coastal Bend and there are too many cases to contact trace and contain. Only dramatic changes in behavior in the community or measures similar to the ones taken in March will be needed to overcome the current wave of cases.”

The researchers also are concerned that actions taken now won’t have an impact for around two weeks, which means rapid increases are almost certain for at least the next 10 days.

“It’s going to get worse,” Bird said. “We need to do a lot to help it get better. We all need to buckle in because this is not a false alarm or a drill. It’s imperative that we all do our part.”

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

TAMU-CC Researchers Track COVID-19 Surges Across Coastal Bend, Urge Precautions

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – A surge in positive cases of COVID-19 in the Coastal Bend coupled with data showing fewer precautions being taken, such as social distancing, has researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi alarmed.

The outbreak here mirrors similar surges flaring across Texas but data being tracked by the researchers shows that the gap between South Texas and other areas of Texas has narrowed, or in some cases, COVID-19 levels here surpass other areas for the first time.

“We are part of a Texas-wide outbreak,” said Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “We have eclipsed Dallas and San Antonio in the numbers of new cases per day per capita, and we’re getting close to Houston. This is maybe the most alarming trend for South Texas in general.”  

In a regular weekly news conference today, June 19, Bird also noted that within South Texas, sharp increases are being seen in Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, and Nueces County. Bird and other members of a special task force are conducting an in-depth report each week for the City of Corpus Christi and Nueces County that models the course of the virus across the Coastal Bend.

The team noted that data obtained from cell phones shows the number of people going to restaurants, grocery stores, and malls has returned to pre-pandemic levels. The data also tracks the distance people travel. That statistic also has returned to pre-pandemic levels, meaning people are returning to more normal patterns of travel such as vacationing, going on shopping trips, or traveling to visit family or friends.

Researchers believe the current surge began over the Memorial Day weekend and appeared first in the 20-39 age group, although it is now being seen across all ages.

“At this point, everybody is getting it,” Bird said.

Because so many cases are being seen across so many age groups and parts of the community, contact tracing is less effective in slowing the spread. Instead, the focus has to turn to a greater commitment to taking precautions, researchers said.

“The cases are popping up everywhere,” Bird said. “We’re in a scenario now that without a change in behavior, we don’t expect there’s going to be a decline. COVID is out there and it’s spreading rapidly in the Coastal Bend area.”

Studies show an effective way to slow the spread of the virus is by wearing a face covering.

“It’s very important to wear face coverings in public,” Bird emphasized. “If we all wear face coverings, that’s going to reduce COVID-19, but realize that the face covering does not make you Superman or Superwoman. Just because you have a face mask on doesn’t mean that you can get closer than six feet away from somebody else. You still want to social distance with the face mask to really reduce transmission.”

The task force also urged people to self-isolate if they have symptoms, stay at home if they can, work from home if possible, postpone social gatherings, keep social distances in addition to wearing masks, and washing hands frequently when outside of the home environment. Bird recommended getting curbside service at restaurants and stores to minimize contact.

“Remember that the face covering is to stop you from infecting people as well as to stop you from getting infected,” Bird said.

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

Shopping, Dining, Medical Care Patterns in Cell Phone Data Help TAMU-CC COVID-19 Researchers

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – Cell phone data is providing important insights into where residents of the Coastal Bend are traveling; whether they are following social distancing guidelines; and how changes in their habits have helped ease the impact here of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi have been examining cell phone data since April, when they and other members of a special task force began an in-depth project for the City of Corpus Christi and Nueces County that models the course of the virus across the Coastal Bend.

In a regular weekly news conference today, June 5, Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, explained how the cell phone data is helping experts understand how patterns in community activity are related to spread of the virus. For many weeks, the data showed that people were staying home.

“Then slowly, as cabin fever set in, we started going out,” he said, noting that the number of people who stayed at home and the distances they traveled reached a low in early April, then began a gradual climb that is now approaching pre-COVID-19 levels. The cell phone data, which cannot be traced back to individual users, is available from all cell phone users who allowed an app to track their location.

Dr. Lucy Huang, Associate Professor of Geographic Information Science and coordinator of the Geospatial Systems Engineering Program, Dr. Bird and their team are exploring foot traffic, distance traveled and other parameters in different parts of the Coastal Bend. For example, the data shows more activity outside the home on weekends; more activity at hotels and less at airports; and more people now visiting malls than grocery stores. A big increase was seen this week in the number of people going to bars. Visits to home improvement stores have been higher than normal since late April, which Bird believes may represent those who are working from home and also working on home improvement projects at their homes, rather than a response to the pandemic.

A concern to the research team is the low number of people seeking medical treatment despite the reopening of doctors’ offices and other medical facilities for non-COVID-19 medical needs. While visits to the eye doctor and dentist seem to be approaching more normal levels, the data suggests other medical care is being delayed.

“If you are having medical distress, your medical outcomes are going to be better if you seek medical attention than if you don’t,” Bird said. The experts noted that hospitals are taking the most thorough precautions against the spread of COVID-19, and people should not be reluctant to seek needed medical care because of fears of contracting the virus.

With a transmission rate steady at 0.9 people infected per virus carrier in South Texas, the researchers reported for the second week in a row that COVID-19 is not expanding here and that South Texas has the lowest transmission rate per carrier in the state. Meanwhile, the higher transmission rates in other parts of the state have declined over the past week.

“This is good news, but it’s not time to become complacent,” Bird said. “Even though our transmission rate is below 1.0, it will still take a long time for this to burn out.”

The rate is far lower than what researchers say would have occurred if social distancing and other measures had not been practiced. Had no measures been followed, the virus would have grown exponentially into thousands of cases here, the models showed. Currently, the Coastal Bend has recorded 384 total cases.

Dr. Philippe Tissot, Interim Director of the Conrad Blucher Institute (CBI) at A&M-Corpus Christi, said the research team is making good progress as it looks at which practices seem to be effective in controlling spread of the virus, and what can be expected if the virus begins to spread rapidly again, perhaps in the fall. Study of the cell phone data is invaluable in conducting a thorough analysis.

“The more we understand why we have low numbers, the better prepared we’ll be in the future,” he said.

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

Island University COVID-19 Experts Encourage Use of Homemade Masks, Bandanas

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – As businesses and public places are opening to customers and visitors across the Coastal Bend, researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi encourage everyone to stay safe by using face coverings – a recommendation that is now backed by a new study.

A research team in Hong Kong has confirmed the importance of the general public wearing face masks as one major prevention strategy to contain the spread of COVID-19.

“A study conducted on hamsters released May 17 by the Department of Microbiology at the University of Hong Kong found that wearing a face mask can significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19,” said Dr. Meng Zhao, Associate Professor and Interim Chair of the Department of Population Health & Health Systems Leadership at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “The study is the first of its kind to use hamsters, providing strong evidence of the effectiveness of wearing face masks.”

The Hong Kong experiments found that the coronavirus’ transmission rate via respiratory droplets or airborne particles dropped by as much as 75% when surgical masks were used. Hamsters have very similar enzyme receptors to humans, which is why they were chosen as the test animals for the experiment. The study is expected to be published in the Clinical Infectious Diseases medical journal.

Dr. Laura Monahan, Assistant Professor and Interim Chair of the Department of Women, Children and Family Health Sciences at A&M-Corpus Christi, noted that the findings are especially significant when specific characteristics of COVID-19 are taken into consideration. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) states that recent studies show a significant number of those with the coronavirus lack symptoms, and those who eventually develop symptoms can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. 

“Thus, the virus can spread between people in close proximity – speaking, coughing, or sneezing – even when those people are not showing symptoms,” Monahan said. “The CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings, especially where other social distancing measures are difficult, such as grocery stores and pharmacies. This measure, in addition to maintaining social distancing and washing hands thoroughly, are all necessary for the prevention of COVID-19.”

Zhao is a member of the Joint Taskforce studying the COVID-19 epidemic in the Coastal Bend (https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID) in coordination with the City of Corpus Christi and Nueces County. The taskforce reported late last week that infections are presently expanding with a transmission rate of 1.3 to 1.6 people infected per carrier.

“While this is a much smaller rate than the 2.8 transmission rate that would take place without precautions, the epidemic is still expanding,” said Dr. Philippe Tissot, Interim Director of the Conrad Blucher Institute at A&M-Corpus Christi and a member of the taskforce. “Additional measures such as more people wearing masks in the Coastal Bend are needed to compensate our increased social contacts and to bring us back to a transmission rate below 1, such as was the case in mid-April.”

Even a relatively low transmission rate of 1.3 to 1.6 can result in a total of 17 people being infected per carrier over the course of a month. The much higher infection rate of 2.8 can result in 95 people being infected per carrier in just a month.

Zhao gave some guidance on the process of choosing and using face coverings.

“To reduce propagation of the coronavirus, the public can wear face masks made of tight-weave cotton, or bandanas,” Zhao said. “Masks must be worn correctly, which means not touching the front of the mask, washing the face mask after each use, maintaining physical distance, and practicing good hand hygiene. This could have a significant effect on the number of needed ICU beds and ventilators and help to decrease the number of casualties in the Coastal Bend.”

Zhao also reminded Coastal Bend residents not to use surgical or N95 masks needed by health care providers.

TAMU-CC Researchers Encourage Vigilance in Fight Against COVID-19 Across Coastal Bend

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – While new COVID-19 cases did not see dramatic increases over the past week across the Coastal Bend, researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi are encouraging everyone to use caution and maintain social distancing practices.

Outbreaks earlier this month at a meat-packing plant and halfway house drove big increases in Nueces County. The past week has seen a slower growth rate although outside of the outbreaks the epidemic is still growing in South Texas.

“Last week our concern was whether this outbreak was an indicator of things to come but it’s looking like the outbreak was a large blip on our radar,” said Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. While the growth rate has returned to more “normal” levels this week, the brief outbreak had a big impact on the level of COVID-19 in the Coastal Bend.

“Things can change really quickly if we’re not vigilant,” Bird said.

Bird said it is critically important to identify and contain localized outbreaks, and business owners and other leaders need to carefully scrutinize their social distancing policies.

“If you don’t find the loopholes in your social distancing policy, COVID will,” Bird said.

Bird and others on the research team, part of a joint task force, gave an update on the COVID-19 situation at a regular weekly presentation today to Corpus Christi City and Nueces County leaders.

The presentation noted the acceleration of cases that continues this week has resulted in the Coastal Bend continuing to gain in the total number of cases per capita when compared to Bexar County. Two weeks ago, Bexar County had three times as many cases per capita as the Coastal Bend. That number has now dropped to a little more than two times as many cases per capita as the Coastal Bend.

Bird fine-tuned calculations of the transmission rate for the virus, comparing the level of transmission if no interventions were in place – estimated at 2.8 people infected per carrier – to the transmission rate under current interventions – estimated at 1.3 to 1.6 people infected per carrier.

Researchers also refined their weekly look at cell phone data, especially related to schools and hotels. The data closely followed the drop off in school activity when spring break was extended and stay-at-home orders took place, as well as hotel-related data that showed how cell phone encounters peaked during spring break, dropped during the stay-at-home period, and started climbing after Easter. Increases in hotel stays reflect favorably on getting the economy back on track but also create some concern about the possibility more visitors could result in a higher rate of infection.

Bird was impressed with how accurately the cell phone data mirrored what was being observed in the community. The data, which cannot be traced back to individual users, illustrates the daily number of human-human contacts outside of the home.

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

Visitors to University Beach are Advised to Take Caution as Shorebirds Nesting Season Continues

By Luisa Buttler, Elizabeth Mock

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – While thousands of local residents have decided to forgo Corpus Christi beaches to minimize their interactions with others due to the COVID-19 health crisis, shorebirds need not take similar precautions, and are flocking to area beaches as they do each spring.

Early April marks the beginning of shorebird nesting season and birds have begun laying their eggs on University Beach, located across Ocean Drive from the Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi and along Corpus Christi Bay. The nesting season runs through early August, and scientists at the Island University’s Conrad Blucher Institute (CBI) are asking beach goers to be careful during this time while walking in the sand.

“It’s important to remember to avoid the nesting area.,” said Deidre D. Williams, Coastal Research Scientist with the CBI and project manager. “People coming too close could cause the birds to flee – abandoning fledglings and eggs to be unprotected from predators and the heat.”

Since April, TAMU-CC undergraduate student Ian Whitt has identified 20 nests on the beach belonging to federally protected shorebirds including killdeer, wilson’s plover, and least terns. Whitt completed a Bachelor of Science in Biology in 2015 and is working on a second degree in Environmental Science while conducting a research study on shorebird nesting habits.

Whitt visits the beach weekly to report on the status of the birds and their nests and collaborates with Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program (CBBEP) avian experts and CBI scientists. He uses binoculars to observe the birds without disturbing them. Whit says that the COVID-19 stay-at-home order had a surprising effect on the number of visitors to University Beach.

“People have actually been visiting the beach more often than last year, most likely due to the amount of closed businesses,” he said. “My advice for everyone going to the beach is to remember that the nests are very tiny and difficult to see, so watch your step.”

While Whitt is monitoring the birds, staff from the CBBEP are fencing off nesting areas to help steer people clear of the shorebirds and their fragile eggs. When at the beach, visitors are asked to take extra care to keep away from these fenced areas, obey warning signs, and stay at least 150 feet away from the shorebirds. Additionally, not all nests are located within fenced areas, so beachgoers need to pay special attention to their surroundings as the nests, eggs and fledglings easily blend in with the sand and are easily missed.

According to the CBBEP website, there are several other ways visitors can avoid disturbing the shorebirds:

• Keep dogs on a leash and away from areas where birds may be nesting (city leash law)

• Properly dispose of trash to keep scavengers away

• Never abandon fishing line or other gear, and remove it if you find it

• Do not fly traditional kites or kites for kitesurfing near areas where birds may be nesting

• When birds are aggravated, you are too close

• Leave the area if shorebirds take flight or fly toward you

Those interested in birdwatching at University Beach during nesting season can observe from the bluff along Ocean Drive since it offers an ideal elevated view of the birds and is less invasive than walking on the beach. But if the birds take flight, you are asked to move further away so they will return to their nests.

TAMU-CC Researchers add Perspective to Recent COVID-19 Outbreak in Coastal Bend

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – With COVID-19 cases surging past 200 this week across the Coastal Bend, researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi are looking at how the specific outbreaks have been handled and what everyone can do to help contain the spread of the virus.

The localized outbreaks at a meat-packing plant and halfway house that drove the weekly increase were addressed quickly, and rapid testing of employees and others helped officials work to contain the outbreak.

“It’s really important to commend these two institutions,” said Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “Rapid testing of employees and those directly affected will help a lot in containing these outbreaks.”

Bird said leaders of businesses or other organizations who believe an outbreak may be happening should quickly involve local agencies so flare-ups of the virus can be quickly contained.

Bird and others on the research team, part of a joint task force, gave an update on the COVID-19 situation at a regular weekly presentation today to Corpus Christi City and Nueces County leaders.

The presentation noted the acceleration of cases this week has resulted in Nueces County now gaining in the total number of cases per capita when compared to Bexar County. Last week, Bexar County had three times as many cases per capita as Nueces County but that number has now dropped to 2.5 times as many cases as in Nueces County.

“COVID-19 is here in the Coastal Bend for sure,” Bird said, “and our models show that it is spreading.”

But the jump in new cases has not resulted in a big change in the transmission rate in the Coastal Bend.

“It’s important to note that the outbreaks result in increased numbers of infectious people but do not necessarily affect the transmission rate,” Bird said. That rate is currently estimated to be at 1.4, which means each infected person likely infects 1.4 other people per week with current preventative measures in place. At that pace, the Coastal Bend should have adequate hospital capacity as infections continue to rise over the next month. Any higher rate, though, could surpass the capacity of hospitals here.

“This is something we need to keep a close eye on,” Bird said of the rate of transmission. “We need to continue wearing masks and we need to identify loopholes in our social distancing policy and close those loopholes.”

One concern is the significant increase in encounters between Coastal Bend residents as measured by cell phone data. Significant spikes in that data over the past weekend may result in a spike in infections in 7-14 days when people who became infected because of increased contact start to show symptoms and seek medical attention. The cell phone data, which cannot be traced back to individual users, illustrates the daily number of human-human contacts outside of the home.

As during past presentations, the researchers showed three scenarios that predicted the outcomes if various levels of preventative measures were taken, with a strong second wave of COVID-19 infection anticipated if all precautions are ended, and lesser levels of infection predicted depending on more stringent protective measures.

The researchers reminded the community of several steps that can be taken to limit individuals’ exposure to the virus and help reduce the possibility of transmission to others. They include wearing a mask as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control; stay at home if you can; self-isolate when experiencing symptoms; more testing capacity and contact tracing to identify infection and enable isolation of infectious people; the development of new treatments to mitigate the effects of COVID-19; and the possibility that summer weather conditions may help reduce transmission, although this has not yet been proven as a deterrent to this particular virus.

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

TAMU-CC Researchers Report Small Increase in COVID-19 Cases in Part Due to Increase in Testing

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – Researchers at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi are finding that a slight increase in new cases of COVID-19 is partially due to an increase in testing across the Coastal Bend. Other factors, including the end of stay-at-home orders and less social distancing, may be influencing the increase, they expect.

As a result, the scientists calculated a slightly higher predicted transmission rate for South Texas, which is still far less severe than if current precautions were not being followed. However, the new rate is set at 1.5 people infected per carrier, indicating that the infection is likely spreading, even if slowly. The updates came as the research team, part of a joint taskforce, gave its weekly presentation today to Corpus Christi City and Nueces County leaders.

In his presentation, Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology, noted that there are now three times as many cases per capita in Bexar County as in Nueces County, which is important considering the number of people who typically travel between the two counties and the resulting increased risk of virus transmission. Data presented at the meeting also showed a slight increase in cases per day in Nueces County while the rest of the Coastal Bend had not seen a clear increase.

As during past presentations, the researchers showed three scenarios that predicted the outcomes if various levels of preventative measures were taken, with a second wave of COVID-19 infection anticipated if all precautions are ended, and lesser levels of infection predicted depending on less stringent protective measures.

Their study of social distancing practices, based on cell phone data, showed that a small increase continues in the number of encounters between people since before the stay-at-home order ended. The cell phone data, which cannot be traced back to individual users, illustrates the daily number of human-human contacts outside of the home.

The researchers outlined several steps that can be taken to limit individuals’ exposure to the virus and help reduce the possibility of transmission to others. They include wearing a mask as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control; self-isolate when experiencing symptoms; more testing capacity and contact tracing to identify infection and enable isolation of infectious people; the development of new treatments to mitigate the effects of COVID-19; and the possibility that summer weather conditions may help reduce transmission, although this has not yet been proven as a deterrent to this particular virus.

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Researchers Predict Outcome if Pandemic Restrictions Ease or End

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – As part of a joint taskforce report, researchers at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi compared data on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Coastal Bend to data from Bexar County and elsewhere and showed the impact of easing or ending restrictions. The report was made during the researchers’ weekly presentation today to Corpus Christi City and Nueces County leaders.

In comparison to Bexar County, Harris County, and the rest of Texas, data from the Coastal Bend shows an earlier and somewhat smaller peak in COVID-19 cases. For reference, U.S. Census data shows populations of Bexar County at about 2 million, Harris County, about 4.7 million, and Nueces County, about 362,000.

“The Coastal Bend is doing well so far with the number of positive test cases continuing to decrease, including none during the past few days in Nueces County,” said Dr. Philippe Tissot, Interim Director of the Conrad Blucher Institute (CBI) at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “While the total number of cases is still increasing in some surrounding areas such as Bexar County, the progression appears to be linear rather than exponential, which is a very good sign.” 

Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology, explained the project and discussed the major differences between three scenarios scientists looked at in their study: continue restrictions currently in place; ease some restrictions; or remove all restrictions.

“We predict that keeping the present Stay-at-Home measures keeps the number of infections low and under control for the foreseeable future, the next couple of months,” Bird said. “Lifting all restrictions leads to a surge in the number of infections and the overwhelming of our hospital infrastructure. The middle scenario shows what happens when Stay-at-Home is ended on April 30. The overall goal is to show the effect that rolling back interventions can have on COVID-19 and inspire us to find alternative ways of reducing the rate of transmissions, such as wearing face masks in public.” 

Another factor being considered by the team is the “seasonality” of the virus, defined as the potential change in the spread of the epidemic due to seasonal changes in temperature and humidity.

“Last week we decreased the transmission rate by 20% in the summer based upon a study by Harvard University that determined a 20% seasonal effect was a moderate estimate given what is known about other coronaviruses and flu,” Bird said.

The team also is measuring the effectiveness of social distancing by looking at cell phone data. Because social distancing is such a critical part of preventing the virus from spreading from one person to another, A&M-Corpus Christi scientists are experimenting with a new tool to quantify social distancing in Corpus Christi and provide better information to decision makers.

“The data is based on daily information gathered from a portion of cell phone users and estimates how often people meet other people who are not part of their household,” Tissot said. “More specifically, it counts when two devices are within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes.”

The data, which cannot be traced back to individual users, shows how the daily number of human-human contacts outside of the home decreased dramatically between normal levels in February through the present Stay-at-Home order, estimated as about an 80% decrease due to the mitigation measures.

The team’s presentations and findings can be seen on a special dashboard: https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19.

In addition to Tissot and Bird, the A&M-Corpus Christi team includes Dr. Lucy Huang, Associate Professor of Geographic Information Science and coordinator of the Geospatial Systems Engineering Program in the Department of Computer Sciences; and Marine Biology Ph.D. candidate Jason Selwyn as lead modelers for the taskforce. Many others are gathering and verifying information, building the information pipeline, and developing the dashboards that provide the information to the public.

Faculty and researchers from CBI, the Life Sciences and Computer Sciences departments and the College of Nursing and Health Sciences form the core of the team as it collaborates with staff at the city, county, and local hospitals.

TAMU-CC Teams up with City, County to Provide Models to Predict Pandemic’s Path in the Coastal Bend

By Darrell J. Pehr

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas – A joint team from Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, the City of Corpus Christi, and Nueces County has developed three models that can predict the number of cases of COVID-19 in the Coastal Bend and the impact on local hospitals, depending on mitigation measures, how well they are followed, and the characteristics of the local population.

At the meeting of the Corpus Christi City Council Friday, the team shared the models along with predictions for the next three to four months based on the information they presently have. They will continue to improve the models based on new information.

Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology, explained the project and discussed the large differences between a scenario without precaution and one that follows the present measures.

“We would be facing hundreds of COVID-19 deaths in the coming few weeks if we were not taking these steps,” said Bird, who typically studies molecular genomics to advance understanding of marine species and promote the sustainability of marine ecosystems.

The models outline three scenarios: what would be happening if social distancing and stay-at-home orders had not been put in place; what would happen if such orders were ended today; and what would happen if these measures stay in place and are followed by the public.

Results between the first two scenarios were somewhat similar but showed a big difference if social distancing and stay-at-home orders stayed in place. One graphic presented at the meeting showed that if no measures had been taken, the Coastal Bend would have as many as 300,000 cases of COVID-19 by mid-April. If measures ended today, the Coastal Bend still could see up to 200,000 cases by mid-May. If measures continue, a peak in cases could be delayed until late May with an estimate of 10,000-87,000 cases.

“It does show some pretty dramatic impacts of how, by us following the orders that have been put in place of social distancing and staying at home, why it matters,” Corpus Christi City Manager Peter Zanoni said. The city approached University leaders President Kelly M. Miller and Vice President for Research and Innovation Ahmed Mahdy last week for help in studying the situation and creating the models.

“It was without hesitation that they assembled a team of research scientists to help our community better understand and project COVID-19 infections and the impact they would have on our regional medical facilities,” Zanoni said.

The team studied transmission ratios across Texas to make predictions about how rapidly the virus would spread here.

“Pandemics are very rare but this is also why it is difficult for all of us to come to grasp with how quickly things can evolve,” said Dr. Philippe Tissot, Interim Director of the Conrad Blucher Institute (CBI) at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. “At the start of the epidemic, using the analogy of a fire, you go from a few community brush fires, to before you know it, within weeks, a full forest fire.”

Tissot said this “forest fire effect” is what has happened in places such as Wuhan, China, Italy or New York City. For the Coastal Bend, initially, it will be more a matter of anticipating what is yet to come.

“The models’ projections and visuals provide the public comparisons of what can happen very quickly if we do not apply strong mitigation measures,” Tissot said. “The graphics provide a comparison of where we would be heading without the mitigation measures that our state, county, and city took. The models also allow us to test different strategies and will allow our decision makers to compare options while considering other factors such as likely economic impact.”

Tissot noted that instead of spending a lot of time creating models from scratch, the researchers looked at existing models that could be used for this purpose.

“Predictions were needed as soon as possible and there were good open-source, vetted options available,” Tissot said. “The team reviewed existing models that were already used to predict the COVID-19 impact including the ones used by the White House. The team selected three models that could be adapted to the Coastal Bend.”

The team is combining data about the virus and from other places where the pandemic has had a greater effect with data from the Coastal Bend. The team also will compare predictions of these three models with two different models being run by others for the full state of Texas.

Tissot said the process can be compared to hurricane predictions.

“The three models have different assumptions and mechanics and give us a better idea of what will happen, a little bit like the spaghetti diagrams predicting a hurricane’s path,” Tissot said. “Also, this is a new virus that we are constantly learning more about. While the virus is the same everywhere, it will propagate differently in New York, Italy, and China as compared to the Coastal Bend. We need to take that into account and learn from the developing local data.”

Tissot said an important component of the process is the collection and flow of information from the hospitals and the testing labs.

“The city, county, and individual hospitals have started to provide this crucial information and we are building with them this information pipeline that will feed the models,” he said. “The team is also working on dashboards similar to the one already provided by the university to track the pandemic in Texas (https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19).”

The A&M-Corpus Christi team includes Dr. Chris Bird, Associate Professor of Biology; Dr. Lucy Huang, Associate Professor of Geographic Information Science and coordinator of the Geospatial Systems Engineering Program in the Department of Computer Sciences; and Marine Biology Ph.D. candidate Jason Selwyn as lead modelers for the taskforce. Many others are gathering and verifying information, building the information pipeline, and developing the eventual dashboards that will provide the information to the public.

Faculty and researchers from CBI, the Life Sciences and Computer Sciences departments and the College of Nursing and Health Sciences form the core of the team as it collaborates with staff at the city, county, and local hospitals. Ph.D. students Evan Krell and Mahmoud Eldefrawy are working with Dr. Scott King, chair of the Computer Sciences Department, to automate the data flow processes. CBI undergraduate research assistant Audrey Garza is helping gather and process data. Others in the health care community are also lending their expertise, including Mike Mohat, Senior Director for Emergency/Intensive Services at Driscoll Children’s Hospital.

While the researchers at CBI and elsewhere across the university are currently applying their unique skills to this crisis situation, CBI normally focuses on coastal monitoring, mapping shorelines for beach erosion studies, oceanic/atmospheric predictions, and other related research. They also work to provide for the unique needs of Texas surveyors by developing strong continuing education and research programs in GIS and Geomatics.

To see a copy of the full presentation given on April 10, 2020, visit https://www.tamucc.edu/assets/covid-19-taskforce-presentation04102020.pdf.